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We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameter problems. Results rely on the structure of meta-elliptical distributions and we allow for discontinuities in the marginals and time varying parameters. We illustrate the ideas [...]
Many economics and finance time series are non-Gaussian. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to non-Gaussian autoregressive time series models via quantile functions. This approach is parametric, so we also compare the proposed parametric approach with a semi-parametric approach. Simulation studies and applications to real time series show that this method works [...]
The asymptotic null distribution of the nonlinear IV panel unit root test due to Chang (2002, Journal of Econometrics 110, 261-292) is examined under the assumption of an invertible general linear process with a weak summability condition. An autoregressive approximation of order p, with p growing to infinity jointly with the sample size [...]
In this paper we consider the KPSS test. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistic under the null of stationarity and under the unit root alternative under the “fixed-b” assumption that the ratio of the number of lags in the long run variance estimate to the sample size is fixed. Regardless [...]
Practitioners often have at their disposal a large number of instruments that are weakly exogenous for the parameter of interest. However, not every instrument has the same predictive power for the endogenous variable, and using too many instruments can induce bias. We consider two ways of handling these problems. The first is to form [...]
This article provides a methodological and empirical approach for assessing price level convergence and its relation to purchasing power parity (PPP) using annual price data for seventeen U.S. cities during the period 1918 to 2005. We suggest a new panel data procedure that can handle a wide range of PPP concepts in the presence [...]
This paper expounds some of the results of Fourier theory that are essential to the statistical analysis of time series. It employs the algebra of circulant matrices to expose the structure of the discrete Fourier transform and to elucidate the filtering operations that may be applied to finite data sequences.An ideal filter with a [...]
Asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) for non-linear ARCH(q) models — including for example Asymmetric Power ARCH and log-ARCH — are derived. Strong consistency is established under the assumptions that the ARCH process is geometrically ergodic, the conditional variance function has a finite log-moment, and finite second moment of the rescaled error. [...]
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